Today’s Song of the Day
Are You Ready For Some Football?!!
Well last week, the Falcons killed Seattle. Who knew that the Seahawks forgot to bring their defense and left them all at Seatac Airport? And who knew the Falcons had a defense at all??
Well, truth be told, the Falcons don’t have a defense. It’s more like Russel Wilson isn’t Aaron Rodgers, a one man offensive machine. The Seahawks offense is anemic. If their defense can’t win games for them, they would be dead last in the league near Cleveland.
As for the Steelers – KC game, well, the poor old Chiefs got robbed in a close game. Truth be told, and no, I am not one of those people who lie or make shit up after the fact – this is truth. After the Atlanta-Seahawks upset pick going awry, I wanted to change the Steelers-KC pick. The reason? Mathematics. I partially base my picks on statistical deviations, as well as a number of other factors – crucial stats or high correlation statistics. Most stats are worthless.
Since the favorites had all won the first week, going 4-0, and all home teams, I expected 2 upsets and 2 road teams to win last week. This would have brought the ratio to 0.25 road victories and same ratio for upsets. It’s lower than the statistical norm during the regular season, and rightfully so, because for the playoffs, home field advantage is huge in football.
I picked Seattle and Green Bay as the 2 most likely to win these upsets. After the Seattle loss, I would. therefore, have to shift my only remaining game that didn’t favor an upset already, which means the Steelers would have been my new pick to win in a slight upset, on the road.
You see, probability is not a static condition. And reversion to the mean is certain over a large enough sample size. Now, 8 games is not really a huge sample size, but the new odds do slightly shift the probability. And especially for a close spread like Steelers-KC, where the spread was about 1.5 points, small, but it can be sufficient to alter the calculations. So there you have it.
Ok, last week wasn’t so good, going 2-2 in the picks, and bringing my playoff total to 6-2. But, as I’ve said before, if you’re going to bet money on these games (I don’t, it’s purely for fun and to test out my wagering algorithms), pick money line bet and go with the underdogs. So, based on this strategy I recommended, you would have still won money this past weekend going with my picks, since I went 1-1 in the underdog picks. (I might also do a 2 or 3 game parlay of all favorites using a 0.25X betting factor.) And the one win would have paid 1.7X versus losing 1X. So you would still have won 0.7X the baseline bet. See, I win when I don’t win! LOL. And in the end, it’s not about gross win-loss picks, it’s about the money. If you made money, you won. If you lost, well, you suck. Haha.
I’m testing out a methodology to win on a consistent basis using my own proprietary algorithm. Next season, I will clean up! Seriously.
Division Conference Championship Games
This week, the Patriots should easily defeat the Steelers. It’s not as sure of a lock as beating the Houston Texans. The Texans had no business even being in the playoffs, although New England certainly did their best to try to let Houston have a chance, turning the ball over 3 times on silly plays. But they still whooped their ass. So this week, I expect the Pats to prevail by about 11 points. They are 6 point favorites. Mastermind coach Belichick will completely stop Le’veon Bell’s running game. I’m projecting under 75 yards of total run yards for the leading NFL rusher. This forces QB Ben to throw the ball. And given they will struggle to constantly keep pace with the New England explosive offense, Ben will do what Ben always does – throw interceptions. His TD to INT ratio is 2.2, versus 29.0 for Tom Brady. Against better teams and defenses, Ben’s TD/Pick ratio is higher. And New England is the number one scoring defense. Of course, Brady’s play this year is unbelievable and almost god-like as well, were it not for being overshadowed by Aaron Rodger’s performance over the past 8 games. Roethlisberger throws at least 2 picks in this game.
Now onto the most difficult game of all, Green Bay versus the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons should win this game, but I’m STILL going with Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay to upset Atlanta. It’s almost a lunatic call, because his receiving corp is decimated, with 3 of his favorite throwing targets injured and limping along. And the defensive secondary is in pathetic shape due to injury as well. And they are going up against the number 1 offense and #1 QB in the league. Good luck. This weekend you’re going to see “the son of god” perform miracles – please don’t think of this as blasphemy, it’s in jest. Rodgers is a complete lunatic playing out of his mind. You are witnessing something that has NEVER happened in the entire history of the league! I wouldn’t bet against Michael Jordan in the championship games, and I sure as hell won’t bet against Aaron Rodgers. Vegas and all the pros are picking the Falcons in a “lock” to win this game. It’s gonna be a hell of a fun game.
Go Cheeseheads!! May the Force be with you! Hopefully Rodgers doesn’t have to be passing the ball to himself by the end of the game to win.