The Theory of Trial and Error

The Truth Theorem Problem

Yes, my title is a bad pun, a play on “truth serum”. I will explain the significance of this problem later in the blog. But for now, read the posed problem below and try to find the answer:

Imagine a 4 sided die (single dice). Like all other ideal dice, it is ruled by pure randomness. The 4 sides of the die is labeled with the letters “A”, “B”, “C”, and “D”. Calculate how many times one would typically need to roll the die to get the EXACT phrase “BADCABBACDAB”, which is BadCab plus it’s reversed spelling. This is a precise palindrome. 

….

Answer:

This is actually a very simple probability math problem. If you’re a genius, you should be able to instantly figure this out in a few seconds. If you’re above average intelligence, it may take a few minutes to think about. If you have no idea how to figure the answer out, don’t worry. It doesn’t mean you’re stupid. Everybody has different strengths, and not everyone’s forte is math.

The answer is calculated simply based on the probability of each roll. Since it is a 4 sided die, each letter has equal chance of showing, or 1 out of 4 chance, or 0.25 probability. Each roll is independent. Therefore, to get the phrase BADCABBACDAB, which consists of barely 12 letters, is (1/4)^12, or 1 out of 16,777,216 typically. You would be very tired by the time you would end up rolling the simple phrase, probably needing to toss the die nearly 17 million times before coming up with the exact 12 letter phrase you desired.

Now, imagine you had to roll this same phrase ONE BILLION times, BACK TO BACK, PERFECTLY. How long do you think it would take to accomplish that?

The answer is simply [(1/4)^12]^1,000,000,000. Virtually every calculator will output the result as zero or “error”. Because it’s too small, even for scientific notation calculators.

Basically, to get the 12 letter phrase once, is about 1 chance in 17 million. To get it a billion straight times, is well, it’s impossible. The number is – for all practical and impractical purposes – infinite. Impossible. The precise answer is 1 chance in 16,777,216^1,000,000,000.  Every calculator will result in the display “Error”. It means you have one chance in infinity to get the result you desire.

By comparison, the total estimated number of atoms in the entire universe is barely about 4×10^80.

Let me give you a little idea of how ridiculously large this number is. Take a look at the spreadsheet calculations below, showing the number of times in a row the phrase BADCABBACDAB is rolled sequentially, and the corresponding probability. The first time is 1 chance in 16.8 million. The 2nd time is 1 chance in 281 trillion. the 3rd time is a number I don’t even know how to describe. After merely 12 times, it is larger than the number of atoms in our universe. After merely 43 times, the number becomes too large for Excel to calculate, even in scientific or exponential notations. Look at the number growing exponentially. Now imagine how big it would be after 1 billion times. You can’t even imagine such a large number. No one can.

Times Probability (1 chance in)
1 16,777,216
2 281,474,976,710,656
3 4.72237E+21
4 7.92282E+28
5 1.32923E+36
6 2.23007E+43
7 3.74144E+50
8 6.2771E+57
9 1.05312E+65
10 1.76685E+72
11 2.96428E+79
12 4.97323E+86
13 8.3437E+93
14 1.3998E+101
15 2.3485E+108
16 3.9402E+115
17 6.6106E+122
18 1.1091E+130
19 1.8607E+137
20 3.1217E+144
21 5.2374E+151
22 8.7869E+158
23 1.4742E+166
24 2.4733E+173
25 4.1495E+180
26 6.9617E+187
27 1.168E+195
28 1.9596E+202
29 3.2876E+209
30 5.5157E+216
31 9.2537E+223
32 1.5525E+231
33 2.6047E+238
34 4.3699E+245
35 7.3316E+252
36 1.23E+260
37 2.0637E+267
38 3.4622E+274
39 5.8087E+281
40 9.7453E+288
41 1.635E+296
42 2.7431E+303
43

1,000,000,000

#ERROR! (TOO BIG)

Something fucking big

Do you truly understand just how large the number that we tried to calculate is?

The problem above is the probability of precisely defining our human DNA, from time=0, until infinity. In other words, if you had infinite time, you would have one chance to get it right, possibly. Our human DNA is about 3 billion “letters” long, defined by using 4 different nucleotides, sequenced precisely. It literally would take infinity to get it right, not merely far less than 5 billion years (roughly the age of Earth), which is a blink of the eye in terms of infinity. That is the truth.

In reality, the probability is much, much, much worse than that. We don’t even consider all the other things like, basic atoms needing to combine together in precisely the right way to define a nucleotide (which is separately impossible randomly), out of infinite possible combinations. Or the co-development of an entire eco-system needed to make the DNA defined species survivable (also impossible). Or countless number of other things that are impossible, that we don’t even include in this simple exercise.

The TRUE probability is INFINITELY GREATER than the INFINITE number that we showed. Yes, it’s infinitely infinite. Or infinitely impossible.

DNA is a miracle. It is defined by a much higher power. There is no doubt about this. It defines everything, in precise detail. It is the engine that makes everything come to life.

 

The Theory of Trial and Error

We all learned long ago, in grammar school, that using a brute force and crude method of trial and error to solve complex problems is stupid and will take too long. It is the longest path to a solution, because one must test every possible combination until you find one that works as desired. So we learn all kinds of fancy tricks and methods to arrive at answers to problems, or to find solutions in a fraction of the time. This is what intelligence brings.

We must remember, a mutation is purely a random copy error in genetic code. Most errors get self-corrected by our cells. Some minor ones get passed the DNA police. And only DNA errors within the reproductive systems have any effect on offspring. This is a VERY small percentage. Practically all DNA errors affect the host only, causing illness, disease, and death for the one person or specie affected.

We must also remember that Natural Selection is simply the application of trial and error, testing the random genetic mutations that occur in DNA. If a mutation is survivable, it lives. Perhaps spreads throughout the population. If it is not survivable, it dies. It’s just a fancy term for common sense. But the mutations that failed can be repeated countless times, since the mechanism for copy errors is random. Not every mutation is exactly what we need, or one that has never occurred previously, just as a the roll of a die can result in the same “A” letter many times, before eventually showing “C”.

I’ve stated previously that the simplest definition of intelligence, and, perhaps the most accurate, is the absence of random. It takes some type of intelligence to overcome random. Random is always going to take the longest and yield the poorest results, probabilistically.

Without intelligence, when dealing with pure randomness, simple compounded probability is the only way to figure out the solution. Hence, my Truth Theorem problem at the beginning of the blog. This IS the probability of random evolution occurring as Evolutionists propose. In fact, to do the probability calculation justice, to provide some greater accuracy, it would take a lifetime of calculation, given all the steps that need to happen, not simply our DNA being born.

You must understand by now that it doesn’t matter how many small steps or chunks we break this probability problem down into. It doesn’t change the math. It doesn’t matter that Natural Selection does or doesn’t do. It doesn’t change the math. the only relevant data points are the endpoints – we started with nothing, then we have a 3 billion letters of a complex DNA molecule.

How long would this take to randomly evolve? Well, now you have an idea. Forever. Even 5 trillion years, or 5,000 trillion years wouldn’t be enough time.

We all know that if we used simple trial and error to solve problems at universities, we would all flunk miserably. If we did this at work, we would all be fired. And yet, we are to believe that this method yielded the greatest inventions in the history of the universe? We are to believe this as a “proven” theory of how life came to be? How dumb do they really think we are?

This lie is merely the work of those who don’t believe in God, who hide behind the name of “science” to proclaim a theory that is nothing more than pure silliness. They leverage the fact that the vast majority of people don’t truly understand math or the implications of compounded probability. And it allows us to be “free”, unaccountable to anything higher.

Freedom is the new catch phrase of the modern era, isn’t it? But we are not free; nor should we be completely free to do as we please. Morality constrains us. Spirituality constrains us. God, constrains us, for our own good, I suppose.

Beware of people who wrap ugly shit in beautiful labels and names. It’s nothing more than a fancy paint job on a lemon car.

The names and labels – evolution, mutation, and natural selection – all sound so sophisticated and scientific. Let’s see them for what they are. Random errors. Observation of the obvious. None of it qualifies as science. Evolution sounds so progressive; appealing. But it is nothing more than the combination of randomness plus time. There is nothing magical about randomness. Nor anything magical about time to create mind-shattering technological inventions. There is nothing magical about Natural Selection.

You can disguise a turd as much as you like. It may look beautiful. But if it smells a bit like a turd, it is. Random evolution is utter bullshit. I hope you are all better than this, to be stupefied by an impossible lie.

I don’t just believe in Intelligent Design of our universe and organic life, it is the only possible option. It is the only reality. The only truth there is.

This will be the final blog on this topic.