The Trump Effect

While the Liberals and Democrats go on whining about our Democratic process and refusing to acknowledge reality, a number of very significant developments are happening worldwide. This is not something that is coincidence, nor happenstance. It is reminiscent of the Reagan/Carter post-election.

The day Reagan was sworn into office, after soundly defeating the incumbent Democrat, Jimmy Carter, the Iranians released of all American hostages who had been held prisoner for more than a year, exposing the impotence and weakness of a cowardly and spineless American President – Jimmy Carter – the worse president in the 20th century. The release was no accident; Reagan was not going to be a wimp on geopolitical affairs, nor allow America to be abused by a theocratic tyrannical government.

In the past month, since the election of president-elect Donald Trump, a number of interesting things have happened, as the mainstream media has – not unexpectedly – pretty much ignored any good news and continues to still focus on their anti-Trump rhetoric.

The liberal media has still yet to figure out that the election was a condemnation of their collective work; most American’s don’t care or listen to the media anymore. It is their own doing; the culmination of decades of blatant bias, increasingly so in recent years. The media is going to kill themselves completely, becoming a completely useless player in our democracy. This terrifies me, because free speech and a strong and independent media are one and the same, and essential to democracy.

Now let’s look at the geopolitical developments in the past month, post-election.

OPEC and Oil

In the past week, OPEC, the consortium of oil producing nations, has done something that I thought was impossible the past couple years: They finally reached agreement to cut production. AND! the non-OPEC members also agreed to cut oil production to help boost oil prices, which have been dismally low, affecting the profits of every energy company and creating a depression in the energy sector. It has also decapitated the finances of oil exporting countries such as Saudi Arabia, and Russia, as well as many others.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/10/non-opec-oil-producers-to-cut-output-558000-barrels-a-day.html

Why is this relevant? And how does this timing have anything to do with politics and Trump?

Back in July, 2015, following the formal announcement of the Iran nuclear deal by the Obama administration, I wrote this blog below:

The Shifting New Middle East Order and a Scary New Reality

Back over a year and a half ago, in the blog above, I asserted that the oil prices and the global economic impact was part of a bigger strategy by Saudi Arabia to weaken Iran, to kill their economy prior to the sanctions relief and the economic boom it would create. It was a preemptive strike, part of an on-going proxy war in the Middle East. The media and all the energy experts were insistent that the oil prices and the Saudi strategy, with regard to export quotas, continuing to intentionally over-supply a world that was awash in excess oil, was all about market competition with the American shale producers. But I thought that was the dumbest assertion and completely illogical; the most simple minded thinking that failed to look beyond the obvious. This was part of a raging war between the Saudis and Iran. Not a single expert was saying anything about what I was proposing was the true motivation.

The timing of the OPEC and non-OPEC announcement to reduce production of oil absolutely confirms my thesis. After nearly 2 years of collapsed oil prices, after continuous failures to reach any agreement, they finally agree to cut? They failed to cut when oil prices were near $30, versus above $50 today; they failed to cut despite trillions lost globally in economic activity; they failed to cut when bankruptcies of energy companies were skyrocketing. And the American shale threat hasn’t diminished one bit, because as prices rise, production will rise rapidly from shale. Yet, now that a recovery is underway, they decided to cut. Very curious timing.

Here’s why…

Trump has said repeatedly that he would immediate reverse the Iranian deal that Obama implemented by mere executive order. In fact, Trump has clearly indicated it would be one of the first actions he would take as president. So the fact that the Saudis are now willing to cut production – which has been a fiscally suicidal strategy for themselves – shows that given the intermediate and long term fear of a resurging Iran is diminished, they can now focus on correcting their government fiscal disaster amd return to profitability. They have been bleeding tens of billions of dollars as a result of their intentional effort to keep oil prices artificially lower than they should have been.

Keep in mind, the oil collapse nearly derailed the global economy early last year. I wrote extensively about this in many blogs. This was another unintended consequence, and another hidden reason why the economic impacts of Obama’s policies have hurt the economy significantly. Both Obamacare and decisions like the Iranian sanctions have first order effects on economic growth.

When Trump says his primary focus is to get the economy back to normal growth levels, you should take him at his word. My prediction is that the recovery in oil prices and a general recovery in commodity prices will follow, ultimately leading to an economy that is finally out of this 1-2% growth rut, perhaps back to 3-4% growth if the tax restructuring, which is a key part of Trump’s agenda, is truly revolutionary.

I’ve written a lot about the coming massive recession, as we enter the end of this liquidity and economic cycle. I have said countless times that a massive crisis would BEGIN in 2016 or 2017 at the latest. I also recently wrote that the Trump win may push this start period back a bit, depending on this tax proposal and his policies. If we can get away from a purely a Federal Reserve induced liquidity debt injection stimulus to sustain our economy, and replace this with true tax reform, and sound economic policies, then it will delay – not avoid – the coming economic crisis by 3-5 years, likely.

The Domestic Exodus of Manufacturing

Within days of Trump’s victory, his pending administration made a concrete effort to stop the already announced plans by major companies to relocate factories from the US to Mexico to lower costs. Within days, both Ford Motor and Carrier, a large manufacturer of air conditioners, rescinded their plans to shut down US factories and move to Mexico. These were huge deals, saving thousands of American jobs. And both were the DIRECT result of Trump, or his surrogates, acting in his behalf, negotiating a deal to keep jobs here. A deal that combined threats of higher import taxes, loss of greater parent company government businesses, and an appeal to patriotism, as well as pragmatic business – restructuring the tax code to create incentives for manufacturers. Trump played hardball. Finally, someone is willing to do what it takes.

Anyone who says that NAFTA or free trade has not had a dramatic impact on US manufacturing jobs is a complete idiot, or driving an agenda. I used to be a very pro-free trade, pro-business Republican. I was brainwashed too, believing that these policies would be good for US and global growth. They are only good for the specific companies’ bottom lines, and the executives and stock shareholders – the wealthy elites.

Of course, the liberal media can only criticize, or blatantly ignore this type of good Trump news. They edit the stories by adding key words to diminish the significance, or usually hide the story in an obscure page deep in the newspaper or magazine, treating it as a minor story. Twisting the success as a failure or accusations of being tainted by self-interest. OR not even report it at all, most likely. Of course, if Obama had done the same thing it would be front page leading news. No doubt about that.

Trump’s Negotiation Skills and International Trade

President Obama, or even Bush, never had the negotiation skills that Trump clearly possesses. And Washington politicians, and even the media, have no clue about negotiations when it comes to economic or geopolitical affairs, despite politics being a nasty game of negotiations. They are hamstrung by the political niceties and politically correct syntax and processes they think they must use.

Trump doesn’t give a shit. He wants results. The way a true business person thinks. The exact same mentality he applied to his very successful businesses. And this is exactly what you have to do! The mindset you need to succeed in negotiations, so we don’t get screwed over by poor deals like NAFTA, or Iran Sanctions, China trade, or a litany of other disastrously negotiated agreements we’ve signed. It was always about the headline news of achievement, and ensuring the well connected are benefited, not the nation as a whole, or the world as a whole.

I know a little something about negotiations too. I negotiated a lot of multi-million dollar deals. I’m no fool, and did quite well in my businesses negotiations. Trump makes me look like an amateur. The first rule of negotiations is that you have to be willing to say no, to walk away if the deal isn’t beneficial for you. For too long we have been afraid to be blunt and say no, or walk away. We have been afraid to state the obvious, like the fact that China is not just screwing us today (and for decades) on trade, intellectual property theft, and more, but that they are actually raping and pillaging our country to the tune of well over half a trillion dollars a year! This is fact. And yet, the politically well-connected, and the large multi-national corporations who have a lot to lose, keep Washington on a close string – to not rock the boat, while they fatten their own profits, at the expense of the American people, the country, and the world.

Taiwan and China, Trump’s Asia Policy

So all of these so called experts and media pundits who have been incessantly ranting about the fact Trump took a congratulatory phone call by the president of Taiwan are completely clueless. He broke protocol! OMG! Ridiculous. An official position that everybody knew was nothing more than lies: The One China Policy.

It was no accident. It was a clear message to Beijing to wake the fuck up. No more getting screwed. No more politically correct theater. We don’t care anymore about political niceties and illusions. Taiwan is an American ally – both economically and politically. We share common democratic goals. China is a communist country – still. And they continuously engage in illicit behavior, stealing, cyber-warfare, intimidating their neighbors, demanding free unfettered trade access to the our markets (the largest in world) while they continually implement barriers and make it impossible for our companies to compete and do business in China. The definition of unfair.

These are absolute facts. I have been following China deeply for over two decades. I have visited China on dozens of occasions for business. I have met hundreds and hundreds of times with large Chinese companies. I know how they think, operate, and negotiate. And I have seen the country evolve almost overnight. I know something about China. And I can assure you, Trump’s direct approach is the only one that has any chance at success.

China will only begin to play fair and by the rules if they respect us. They don’t right now. They know we have been afraid to rock the boat politically or economically. Every presidential administration – of both political parties – has been terrified. So they placate China, while cowering and making pleas for them to reform and do better.

Trump’s message, which is a long time coming, is that “If you want us to treat you like a man, with respect, fairly; then treat us like a man, with respect, and fairly.” (For all those PC morons who are thinking what a sexist phrase this is, grow up.)

China has far more to lose in this negotiation and standoff than America does. About $500+ billion dollars a year more. And Trump knows it. He’s not afraid to call their bluff. He’s not afraid to hold their feet to the fire. And he damn better or we should impeach the asshole.

As for the clueless, biased media, who knows little to nothing about how to actually negotiate – how posturing and bluffing, threatening sometimes, is a key part of a successful process – please shut the hell up. Let real professionals do their work. These Monday morning Quarterbacks are useless and clueless, this includes all the Washington establishment, the liberally biased media, and any democrat who is still crying about the election, like a bunch of kindergartners who didn’t get their nap time. And you insist America hasn’t gone soft, while you whine through your nose.

So, give Trump a chance. He’s not a moron as so many seem to thing. He’s not going to blow the world up as I’ve heard so many idiots proclaim. After all, if you want to go there, Obama has started more wars and conflicts that any modern president. Trump isn’t some crazy lunatic the media and Democrats have made him out to be. The fact that so many Americans are terrified of him makes me shake my head in disbelief. It shows how brainwashing works. How shallow, stupid and hollow we are as a society – unable to think critically for ourselves.

Remember: judge a man not by his words, but by his actions. This runs counter to everything in Washington. In negotiations, every word, every movement, every action, is part of the strategy or tactic. Trump knows this very well. A lot of what he says and does is intentional – to keep the opposition off-guard; to make him unpredictable. Predictability is the number one liability in negotiations. Like Washington. Or the media.

People don’t understand Trump because he doesn’t operate or think like them. It’s why he’s successful. If you want someone unsuccessful, like a career politician, well, I feel sorry for you.

You want my opinion America? You’re the fools for buying into this anti-Trump rhetoric. Not being able to see past it, and think critically by asking why.

Trump may be the devil. But sometimes we need the devil to negotiate our deals.