Well, it’s been more than 48 hours since the moment of shock, when Trump prevailed in the 2016 Presidential election. It wasn’t a shock for me, but about 7 billion other people, perhaps yes.
The world hasn’t exploded. I haven’t witnessed an extinction level apocalyptic meteor shower. The sun rose twice. And civilization is still moving forward. Hmmmm.
I’ve been meaning to check the bookings rate of Canadian Airlines, to see if the flights from America’s coastal regions to up north have been filling up. To all of those snobby liberals who threatened to move to Canada should Trump win, well, I’m hoping you aren’t going to prove you’re just another lying Hillary supporter. Are you?
Seriously, if you can be so cavalier about your commitment to this country, based on one election, then I think you really should leave our wonderful country. I’m sure all the white crosses of veterans who gave their lives in defense of this country, who now rest in the Arlington National Cemetery, won’t mind.
I’m sorry for all the so-called “Intellectuals” who love to constantly tell us how uneducated Trump supporters are, inferring somehow that these votes should mean a little less than someone with their own intellectual stature. The stench of elitism hopefully is exhaling its final breath – an exhale reeking from Halitosis.
I find it ironic how Trump supporters who were so villainized by media and the Left, so predictably, accusing them of being so filled with hate, to be so prone to violence; whom Hillary classified as a basket of “deplorables” (I guess the basket was only half full), yet they aren’t the ones who are violently protesting the results of a peaceful election. No, the democratic supporters are the ones vandalizing and rioting and burning things in California. Only the democratic party was proven to be trying to stir up violence intentionally at Trump rallies by planting paid “disrupters” to intentionally create violence and then have a sympathetic Left media report it. Even Hillary herself ordered these paid disruptors to wear “Donald Duck” costumes to incite violence, as proven by the leaked Wikileak emails. This is supposed to be fair game in an election?
All I can say is, “Thank God someone other than Hillary won the presidency”.
THE FINAL ELECTION RESULTS
The final electoral map results are below:
The official electoral final will be Trump 306 electoral votes (after Michigan is added with 16 electoral votes), to 232 electoral votes for Clinton (after New Hampshire’s 4 electoral votes are added).
This is right in the range of 299 to 335 electoral votes that I predicted for Trump, with 270 needed to secure a victory.
I was very surprised Trump lost Nevada. Colorado was only a slight surprise. Every other state in my base model proved right on.
I also thought Trump could sweep the upper midwest states of Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, which are traditionally blue Democratic states, citing a probability of 45% to get all three. Trump took 2 out of 3, with only Minnesota going blue. To achieve a cumulative probability of 45% means that each of the states had an individual probability of about 75% of going red (75% x 75% x 75% = ~45%). So, getting 2 out of 3 would be reasonable. And given Minnesota is always the most difficult, or least likely to go red, the model turned out pretty accurate.
I was shocked that the popular vote was so close, and that, in fact, Hillary won the popular vote marginally. She took the coastal blue states with wider margin than I expected. Of course, I didn’t bother analyzing the heavily blue states on the east or west coast AT ALL, since they are certain to go blue. So my overall margin for victory was wrong. Sorry to disappoint.
Still, not bad for 2 hours of work. Actually, it was probably closer to less than 60 minutes, because I was doing this while I was watching 6 simultaneous NFL football games last Sunday at the Sportbooks, while also talking with my neighbors during the games. And of course, all of it was just on my Samsung phone, just like all my blogs.
Considering that both sides spent HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS OF DOLLARS, by thousands of so-called “experts” trying to figure out the polls and electoral map, and yet, my under 60 minutes of analysis proved far more accurate. Hmmm. Interesting. Maybe they should hire me instead for a few million dollars next election cycle.
I’m 3 – 0 on election calls in the past year or so with Trump, Brexit, and the Greek Referendum. All of these were huge upsets that defied the polls and experts.
Maybe I’m just very lucky.
Or maybe, you should be more careful listening to all of these so called experts for everything. I’ve told you all a hundred times, I do my own research for everything, and the vast majority of the time, I’m far more right than the “experts”.
Maybe, just maybe, I’m not so crazy when I say my analysis says global warming due to hydrocarbons is a bunch of bullshit (read chapter 9 regarding my math and scientific analysis on this). Or that random evolution is mathematically and scientifically impossible (also in chapter 9). Or that this economic system is soon coming to an end. Or that this war on terror is unwinnable.
I will say one thing, the Trump victory, depending on what he implements in terms of structural tax reform, has the potential to delay the next looming financial crisis, which I’ve been projecting would start in 2016 or 2017 latest. But it must be significant structural reform, Reaganesk. Without the details, I can’t do my analysis. But it’s the only thing that can possibly delay – not save – the coming economic calamity.
There are a few more blogs I need to write before I say my farewell.