I needed to wait to see the results of this crazy election…so here is an unexpected blog.
Below is my “detailed” analysis of the 2016 election. I spent a couple hours Sunday, in between the football games, to assess what I think the final score of this presidential election will be. As I mentioned long ago, I said Trump would win easily.
My projection is that Trump will win the electoral vote by 299 vs 239 for Hillary (best case for Trump will be 335 electoral votes if he wins Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, which I believe he has a reasonable 45% chance to do). The popular vote will be 3-4% advantage in favor of Trump. My final predictions:
Trump (R) 49%
Clinton (D) 45%
Johnson (L) 4%
Stein (G) <2%
This is in complete contradiction to all the polls and the experts. ALL the experts have Hillary winning easily, with an overall probability of 3:1. They will, again, be wrong. They still don’t get it. And they still don’t understand what’s going on globally; there is a global grassroots movement against the status quo, institutionalism, elitism, and globalization – basically all the major global trends since the end of the Cold War are unraveling and reversing. And I believe it is long overdue. The insiders and institutions have defied the global public will for too long, benefiting only the rich and powerful, those connected with policy makers, Wall Street, and large corporations.
The underpinnings of my analysis are as follows:
• There is still a substantial undecided group, about 6-8% according to most polls. I believe these voters will break at least 2:1 in favor of Trump, resulting in about a 4%:2% ratio, and at least a +2% addition to the current Trump polls. Trump has a visceral reaction for most people. If you still don’t know by now, almost certainly you will vote against establishment (Hillary) and for change (Trump).
• The momentum is clearly with Trump and the Republicans. If most polls were taken purely today, instead of a rolling 5-7 day period, Trump would clearly be in the lead.
• Early voting indicates that Black voter turnout is significantly lower than in 2012 or 2008. This isn’t a surprise, since the optimism and hope of the first Black presidency failed to translate into tangible gains for the Black community; and, in fact, racial tensions and economic opportunity for the Black community is worse in almost every statistical category under Obama. In short, they feel duped. And they should. This is a massive blow to the hopes of the Democratic party. Blacks vote 9:1 in favor of Democrats, the widest gap of any racial group.
• Latinos turning out in very high numbers due their anger over Trump really hasn’t materialized. Latino turnout is indeed up, but not as much as expected. And the percentage of Hispanic support for Trump is exactly the same as it was in previous elections for less polarizing Republican candidates. So, it appears Latinos will not make up for the shortfall in the Black turnout. Furthermore, the voting patterns of Latinos is only marginally advantageous to democrats, at about 6:4.
• Trump and Republican voters are far more outraged than Clinton voters. They demand change and are far more motivated to vote this year. This enthusiasm gap will be huge to turnout.
• Hillary is not generating any enthusiasm as a candidate. People are voting for her simply because they hate Trump. And the young demographics, the Bernie Sanders voters, are still pissed off about the primaries, especially in light of the revelations that the media and democratic party were literally colluding with Hillary’s campaign to defeat Bernie. Why there are no federal prosecutions for this is only because the powers that be are simply turning their heads. What a sham. This is why the younger demographics are not voting as much this year in the early voting. The trend is down significantly, which will hurt Clinton enormously. Minorities and youth basically propelled Obama to the White House. Both pillars are weaker in this election cycle for Hillary.
• There will be far more Democrats that vote for Trump than, perhaps, since Reagan. Blue collar and working class Democrats and union workers are in a fairly angry state of being these days. And rightfully so. They’ve been ignored for a decade or more. Their economic situation is far worse than in previous generations. Much of this is due to free trade. Trump’s anti-free trade – or at least more fair trade policy – resonates with these voters. The numbers clearly support this.
• Finally, Trump is killing Hillary by a huge margin among Independents. Furthermore, his Republican support is stable and now at the same level as it was for Romney, at 88%.
These are facts. And it doesn’t take a genius to figure out what the outcome is going to be. Forget what all the polls say, they will be wrong.
Trump will win easily, as I have said long ago.
If the experts and mainstream media and leadership is continually wrong, perhaps we should stop listening to them. If they still don’t understand the problem, how can they possibly understand the voters?
Trump may be an idiot sometimes, but the big ideas he stands for are spot on:
- Free trade has been beneficial for select groups – large corporations and insiders – while hurting most folks. Our huge trade deficit speaks volumes to the inequity of trade. America is being sold out to these same interests. It is true. I used to be very pro-free trade; a diehard capitalist republican.
- NATO and America must change. We can’t be the protector to the world anymore; we’re bankrupt. Meanwhile Europe and the world spends little to nothing on self-defense, while spending huge sums on their own domestic social needs – because America pays for and provides their collective self-defense. This is one of the key reasons why our debt is out of control. Just look at any stats and this is quite obvious.
- Wall Street IS corrupt. And Hillary is about as pro-Wall Street as there is, based on her actions and support, and the Wikileaks documents of her secret Wall Street speeches. You won’t get change with Hillary. This is fact.
- And the absolute truth is, illegal immigration IS out of control. How can anyone believe otherwise based on the facts and figures, and still call themselves intelligent or objective? We must secure our southern border.
- And radical Muslims must be vetted more thoroughly before entering our country. This is common sense. We all know where terrorism is coming from. Let’s call a spade a spade. It doesn’t mean we can’t accept and embrace peaceful and contributing Muslims into our neighborhoods and country. The vast majority are really decent, peaceful and loving people. They do not deserve our hatred nor discrimination. However, being sensible and vigilantly screening who we allow from the Middle East and other Muslim nations more thoroughly is pragmatic – AND ESSENTIAL TO OUR SECURITY. It is also our right as a sovereign nation.
Trump is about as far from perfect as you can get as a candidate. But he understands the biggest issues and is the only true choice who has any chance at all of bringing REAL CHANGE to Washington, the country, and the world.
HISTORY OF MODERN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
In modern elections, given the extreme polarization of today’s electorate, a 3-4% popular vote advantage is a landslide election. Barack Obama achieved this in 2008 with his message of “hope and change”. However, his re-election effort in 2012 was more muted, as his unpopular Obamacare signature healthcare legislation weighed him down. Nonetheless, Obama still achieved 332 electoral votes and 3.9% advantage in the nationwide popular vote (51.1% vs 47.2% for Romney).
The biggest landslide of the modern era occurred in 1984, the re-election of the highly popular Republican president, Ronald Reagan, resulted in a blistering defeat for the Democrats, led by presidential candidate Walter Mondale. Reagan defeated Mondale by the widest margin ever in the post WWII era, 525 electoral votes to barely 13, nearly a 20% ass-whooping in the popular vote advantage!
Bill Clinton’s presidency is widely viewed as a fairly successful dual term. And he is nearly universally viewed as being a popular president (one of the advantages of mainstream media and 90% of journalists being Democrats). But Clinton never achieved a simple majority popular vote in ANY term as president. He is the ONLY president IN HISTORY to never receive a plurality of the vote (over 50%). (G.W. Bush did so in his second term after the Florida recount fiasco in 2000.) This Clinton failure was due to third party Independent candidate Ross Perot, a self-made billionaire from Texas, who had a personal vendetta against the Bush family, took a very large share of the popular vote and divided the Republican base. Ross Perot collected a whopping 18.9% or nearly 20 million votes (19.7 million) as an Independent, mostly from Republicans. Perot basically ran on one simple platform – fiscal responsibility and reigning in the growing federal deficit and debt. Sounds almost comical now.
The debt in 1992 was $5 trillion. Today, in 2016, it is approaching $20 trillion (as of 11/1/16 it stood at $19.76 trillion). Our national debt went from $10.627 trillion on January 20th, 2009, when Obama first took office, to nearly $20 trillion on the day he will leave office. To be fair, it wasn’t entirely Obama’s fault. Both parties and Washington in general are to blame, as well as the American people who villainize groups like the Tea Party movement – who’s sole focus is on more fiscal responsibility – and everyone who wants everything but refuse to sacrifice anything to help solve the problem.
The debt isn’t a problem…until it becomes a problem – usually suddenly and unexpectedly, catching everyone, especially the “experts”, off-guard. When it becomes a problem, every problem our nation has faced since it’s inception over 200 years ago, will seem like small potatoes in comparison. It will become an existential threat. And given our dependence on the dollar being the global reserve currency, used to denominate international trade, we cannot simple inflate our way out of this problem. So, yes, it is a huge problem. And yes, I believe, the biggest threat to our national security and well-being, long-term, as a nation.
HISTORICAL PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS
Electoral Popular (M)
Reagan 525 54.5
Mondale 13 37.6
G.H. Bush 426 47.9
M. Dukakis 111 41.0
B. Clinton 370 44.9
G.H. Bush 168 39.1
R. Perot 0 19.7
B. Clinton 379 45.6
B. Dole 159 37.8
R. Perot 0 8.09
G.W. Bush 271 50.456
Al Gore 266 50.997
G.W. Bush 286 62.0
J. Kerry 251 59.0
B. Obama 365 69.5
J. McCain 173 59.9
B. Obama 332 65.4
M. Romney 206 60.6